Friday, 15 February 2019

A Complete Analysis On TATA Motors - Buy / Sell / Avoid

A Complete Analysis On TATA Motors - Buy / Sell / Avoid

This week was extremely volatile with some big news related to giant companies. In upper side 11000 is still acting like a big hurdle for nifty to cross and in lower side 10650 is acting like a crucial support. In today’s post we will discuss about TATA Motors. 

This stock has tanked almost 20-25% on 8th February 2019. That fall was mostly because of weak JLR numbers and the concerns which were arising for Britain. But this week TATA Motors has strongly recovered from 150 to 160. Now the big question is shall we buy this stock or shall we avoid? Let’s start this topic.

About the company

It is an Indian multinational automotive manufacturing company which primary products are passenger cars, trucks, vans, coaches, buses, sports cars, construction equipment and military vehicles. In FY 2017-18 company reported a net profit of 6813 crores compared to 6063 crores in FY 2016-17 in consolidated basis. This company is also ranked 226th on the Fortune Global 500 list of world’s biggest corporations as of 2016.

Shall we buy?

Well, this question is always a subjective type question. Whether you should buy or not that is completely your choice because it is your money. I can only suggest with my analysis which may help you to understand the things more clearly. The end decision will be yours.

As per my suggestion if you want to buy then you should buy this between 145-150 range. One more thing I will add that if this stock comes down then this can come to 130. This is because it has a strong support near 130. Let’s see this in chart.


This is the monthly chart of TATA Motors. We can clearly see that 130-150 is the price range where it is expected to consolidate. But this will only happen if it comes down to this level. If it never comes to this level, then you might not get a chance to see these price levels again. 

Why I think that this stock can come down as the volumes are not supporting the price action in this stock. There was a sharp buying from the price level of 130. Normally this kind of candle is called hammer pattern which indicates a buying opportunity. But as this is not supported by volumes which is clearly seen from previous month’s volume bar, I can say this can be a trap.


So if you want to buy this stock then wait for 150 and buy only 25% of your total amount you want to invest. Then if it comes to 130 then buy more 25%. This is the best strategy as per my analysis.

From the fundamental prospective TATA Motors is a good share with the brand name of TATA’s. But each stock has its good phase and bad phase. It’s only you who will decide whether to invest in this stock or not. I always advise that if you have 1% doubt then don’t invest. One should invest only when he is sure for 100% that he wants to invest.

That’s all for now. Stay connected.

Stay happy, Stay healthy, Happy investing.

(Disclosure- I have this share in my portfolio)

Friday, 8 February 2019

Trading Opportunity - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Detail Analysis With Charts

Trading Opportunity - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC),  Detail Analysis With Charts

It's been a very volatile week for all the market participants this week and I'm sure each one of them have either gained or lost something in this choppy market. Well, that's the nature of stock market. Today we will discuss about an opportunity which you should pay attention. I always to try to find opportunities in the market and present before you so that even if we don't take our chances, we can't say we didn't know about those opportunities. So we will discuss about an oil marketing company Indian Oil Corporation i.e. IOC.

Company Background

Before going to the detail let's check few basic things. It is the largest commercial oil company in the country. It has earned a net profit of INR 21346 crore in FY 2017-18. It is ranked first in Fortune India 500 list for the year 2016 and 168th in Fortune’s "Global 500" list of world largest companies in the year 2017.

Fundamental Check

This company is currently trading with a P/E of 8.11 while the industry P/E is 15.02 which making the share attractive from the investors point of view. One of the important factor to look at is its debt. It will put hurdle in company's growth. There is more than INR 55000 crore debt on company's balance sheet. This company is well known for its dividend policies as it is one of the most loved stock for dividend seeking investors.


One of the famous chart pattern which we all know is symmetrical triangle pattern. Normally this chart pattern is a sign of bearishness and it makes the stock weak on technical analysis. There are thousands of companies and we all can't pick all companies at the same time to check their charts and find opportunities. But this which I've found, I want to share with you. Let's have a check on its daily chart.

From the daily charts the triangle is clearly seen. The price action of this stock is hovering between  125- 150. This stock has stayed in this range for approximately 5 months and slowly making a symmetrical triangle pattern. Let’s check its weekly chart.

Even in weekly chart the same pattern is showing which is showing bearishness in the chart. This means if the stock breaks the boundary of the triangle in downside then it will go further downwards and make new lows. Though as per my analysis fundamentals of the stock is not bad but still we have to check technical along with the fundamentals.

Brokerage houses have already downgraded this stock for its poor performance in Q3 of 2018. Big brokerage house CLSA has cut the target price of this stock to  120 which may be in our favor and favoring this chart pattern. So there can be a short selling opportunities in future market and if you have this stock in your portfolio then you should remain cautious and try to hedge your position.

So this is for today and I’ll love to hear from your suggestions, questions or any specific points you want to mention. Till then stay happy, stay healthy.

Friday, 1 February 2019

What Is Hedging and Arbitrage In Stock Market?

In this post we are going to discuss about hedging and arbitrage. So let's start.

What is hedging?

In a simpler term, hedging means insurance. Now if we understand what is insurance and why we take insurance, then we will clearly understand the meaning of hedging and its purpose.
So what is insurance? It is an arrangement by which a company undertakes to provide a guarantee of compensation for specified loss in return for payment of a specified premium. A trader has hedged his portfolio means he has protected his portfolio by taking position in stock market. Let’s understand it by an example.

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I have a biased interest in TATA group of companies and from all the companies of that group I preferred TATA Motors. I bought the shares of TATA Motors because I think this share is an underdog. It can perform well in future. But at the same time, as market doesn’t go as per my conviction, I have a fear that TATA Motor’s share may go down. That’s why I sold the shares of Ashok Leyland, a competitor of TATA motors, in future market. Now there will be two cases.

Case-1: I was proved right.

TATA Motor’s share goes up and I earned profit. But at the same time I face loss in Ashok Leyland because I have short position in that share.  If I considered the net position then I will find a net profit from my trades.

Case- 2 I was proved wrong.

If something contrary happens against my analysis then TATA Motors will go down and I will bear a loss. But thanks to Ashok Leyland! I will earn profit from there to minimize my loss. Hence I will bear a loss which is small in compared to the gross loss I was having in TATA Motor’s share. 

What we learned from this example? No matter I was right or wrong, in both the cases I gained something. In first case I gained profit whereas in second case I minimized my loss. 

Not having loss is also a kind of gain.

In stock market big players play with big money and they have responsibilities. So they can’t just play randomly. They always take hedge positions to reduce their risk. The traders who take long position make their hedge by taking short position in other shares. Traders, who initially take short positions, make their hedge by taking long position in other shares. The fund managers always prepared for the downside risk of markets by taking a calculated hedge positions.

So it is a very important tool in capital market.
What is arbitrage?

Arbitrage is basically having profit by buying a security in one market and simultaneously selling it in other market at a higher price. This is the process of identifying and trading the temporary differences in price of the securities in different markets. 

For example I observed a seller is selling shoes in a shop. He is quoting 400 per pair. I moved to a shop which is in other area of the city. Interestingly I saw that the same shoes are quoting at ₹420. I asked the seller his buying price. He said it costs ₹410 to them because they buy those shoes from other cities. Now I get a chance to earn profit here. I ran to the first shop and buy shoes ₹400 and immediately sold those shoes to the second seller ₹410. My travelling cost was ₹20. I have sold 20 pairs of shoes. Now can you tell me the profit I earned?

Sales = 20*410= ₹8200
Purchase = 20*400 = ₹8000
Travelling cost = ₹20
Net profit = ₹8200-₹8000-₹20 = ₹180
This is kind of arbitrage practice. In India there are two major stock exchanges. 

1.NSE (National Stock Exchange)
2.BSE  ( Bombay Stock Exchange)

    Now I noticed that Berger Paint’s share is trading at ₹225 in BSE while trading at ₹223 in NSE. I will immediately Sell shares in BSE and buy the same shares in NSE. I will gain ₹2 per share without any analysis. 

But the important point to notice is there are less likely situation where we will get chance to make arbitrage profit. There are many FIIs who only do arbitrage because they have advanced software, automated machines who take trade automatically. You have to be very fast in this game. You have to be absolutely attentive. 

I hope this post helps you to understand what is hedging and what arbitrage is. If you have any questions then you can ask in comment box. Constructive suggestions are always welcome.

Thank You.

Stay Healthy, Happy Investing.

Sources of information

Friday, 25 January 2019

A Quick Understanding About Forward Contracts & Option Contracts

A Quick Understanding About Forward Contracts & Option Contracts

So in the previous posts we have discussed what derivative contracts are and some important terms related to derivatives. In this post we will discuss about the types of derivative contracts.

Basically there are two types of derivative contracts.
1.Forward Contract  
2.Option Contract

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1.Forward contract

A forward or future contract is the simplest form of derivative transaction. Normally in this type of transaction there is an agreement to buy or sell certain quantity of underlying asset at a certain price on a specific date. No cash is exchanged while entering into the contract. Interestingly there is a difference between “no cash” and “margin money”. You have to understand that in forward contracts you must have required margin money in your account. But at the same time you don’t have to pay any cash out of your pocket for the contract. It is only the decrease of the price of the asset which will be debited from your ledger account.
Let’s understand this with an example.

John enters into a contract to buy 1 lot of Asian Paints January Future contract @ ₹1400 on 1st January 2019. Here asset underlying is the shares of Asian Paint, quantity is 600 shares, and future date is the last Thursday of this month. Now as per stock exchange the minimum margin money for 1 lot of Asian Paint shares is ₹800000. So you are only eligible to enter into the transaction only if your ledger account has a balance of ₹800000 or more than that. But at the same time you are not paying anything to enter into this contract.

Now, if next day the future price of the share decreases by 10 then John will bear loss of ₹6000 and this will be deducted from his account.

Similarly, if the price of the share increases by ₹20 then you will gain a profit of ₹12000 and that will be credited to your ledger account. If the price of the share remains unchanged then you will gain nothing. This is the simple math.

Now let’s take another example in which we will see a different application of forward contracts. Maya wants to purchase gold after three month but she is worried about the fluctuation of price in gold market. Hence she will buy 1 lot of gold today but the future date will be after three months. So if the gold price increases then she will gain a profit. But if the gold price decreases then she will bear loss.

2.Option Contract

The very simple meaning of option is the process of choosing between alternatives. So what are the alternatives in stock market? Answer is “to buy or not to buy, to sell or not to sell”. So option is a contract where the buyer of the option contract acquires a right to buy or sell a specific quantity of asset underlying on a specific date at a specific price. One major difference between forward contract and option contract is the premium paid. 

As we have already discussed that there is no need of cash in forward contracts but in option contracts you have to pay cash which is known as “premium” in stock market. This is the price you are paying to acquire a right. After acquiring this, you have the option to invoke the contract or just ignore it and it will lapse. Let’s understand it by an example.

Sania bought 1 call option at the strike price of ₹1400 for January series. She also paid premium of ₹10 to acquire this contract.Now three outcomes may come.

First if the share of Asian Paint went up to ₹1450, then Sania will exercise her contract and buy the shares @₹1400. In this case let’s understand the cash flow from Sania’s point of view.
Purchase shares @1400 = -₹840000
Premium paid @10= -₹6000
Sell shares at market price @1450 =₹870000
So net profit = ₹870000-₹840000-₹6000= ₹24000

Now let’s come to the second outcome where the price of the share is decreased to ₹1350. In this case Sania will not exercise her option to buy the shares. So cash flow will be as under.
Premium Paid = -6000
Purchase shares = Nil, Sell shares = Nil
So net loss of Sania = ₹6000

And the third outcome where price of the share remain unchanged then it is upto Sania, whether to exercise or not exercise the option.
So in this way option contracts work. 

Basically option contracts are used for hedging purposes. In simple terms big companies use this like insurance. We will discuss it in our coming blog posts. Till then stay invested, stay happy.

Friday, 18 January 2019

What are Derivatives and some important terminologies in Derivatives?

What are Derivatives and some important terminologies in Derivatives?

Many people wonder what is derivative, what is futures and options, how much risky they are and can we make profit from them. The one answer is “Yes” but terms and conditions applied. You need education, patience, practice to get this yes. If you are doing these three things then I believe you can earn from stock market. For education I’m starting a series of posts where I’m going to discuss some basic knowledge about stock market and today our topic is “Derivatives”.

Also Read,

A derivative is a security which value is normally derived from the value of another underlying asset. This asset could be equity, commodity, forex or any other asset. In now-a-days more complex and hybrid derivatives are coming to the focus in which asset underlying are loan, weather, monsoon, mortgages, crops, insurances etc. Many people don’t know the proper meaning of derivatives. I’ve come across many peoples who believe that derivatives are different thing from stock market. But no, derivatives are completely dependent upon stock markets. Let’s understand it through a simple example.

Take the example of cheese which is made from milk. The price of cheese is directly related to milk i.e. the value of cheese is derived from the value of milk. If milk price will go up then the cheese price will definitely go up, there’s no other questions in this. Similarly if milk price is going low then cheese price will go low. For an example I have a lot of TATA Steel share. Here the underlying asset is the share of TATA steel. If in cash market price of TATA steel is increasing then definitely TATA steel’s future’s price will also increase.

One major misconception about Derivatives are, People think Derivatives decide the cash market’s price where as in reality cash market fixes the price of derivatives or futures and options of shares. 

Derivatives are two types.
1.Forward Contract
We will discuss about them in details in our upcoming blog posts. Before that let’s know some basic terminologies used in Derivatives.

Lot Size You can buy even a single share from equity market in cash segment. But in derivative segments there is different lot size for different shares. For an example Asian Paints has a lot size of 600 shares. That means one contract of Asian paints required 600 shares in a lot. If you are willing to buy or sell then you have to buy in 600 or multiple of 600 in derivatives market which is lot wise. Example –
1 lot = 600 shares
2 lot = 1200 share
10 lot = 6000 shares

Open positions – In equity market if you are doing intraday trading then you have to complete your trade within that day. You can’t wait for the next day. You can’t sell shares today and buy tomorrow or after 10 days. This is one of the limitations in equity market. But Derivatives gives you the freedom to sell and buy after few days before the contract’s period ends. So if you have bought one lot of Asian paint’s share then your position will be called as open position.

Closing Position –When you square off your position in stock market in derivatives segment then it will be called as closing position. In India you can square off you r position on or before last Thursday of the month. If you are not closing your position then stock exchanges will automatically square off your position. This is like the opposite of open position.

Mark to Market Settlement ( MTM ) – In India exchanges run a daily MTM with regard to all future positions and therefore your profit or loss of one day will be credited or debited to your account in that same day. So if you are having a profit of 6000 then it will be credited to your ledger in your brokerage. Similarly if you are facing a loss of 10000 then it will be deducted from your account on the same day without even considering your financial position. That’s why futures trading are risky.

Margin Money- This is the money which brokerages keep with themselves to protect and save themselves from any loss incurred by client. For an example John has 100000 in his account. He has taken position in the market of 500000. When his position start losing 1% then his value will decrease by 5000 and the same will be deducted from his 100000. Now he has 95000 in his ledger. Similarly if after two days the shares went 15% downwards then John will bear 75000 losses. Now he has 20000 in his ledger. This is the time where brokerage will ask for margin money because John has not sufficient money to compensate further loss of 15%. There are different types of margin money. We will discuss them in some other blog posts.

So if you are trading in futures and options then you must know these terms and understand how much risk you are bearing. In our next blog posts we will discuss about forwards contracts and option contracts which comes under derivative segments.

Stay Happy, Stay Blessed

Saturday, 12 January 2019

5 Things Which Will Decide The Future Of Stock Market Of India in 2019

5 Things Which Will Decide The Future Of Stock Market Of India in 2019

It is well said, “Without a plan, you can’t win a war.” Similarly, if you are a participant in the stock market then you’ve to be prepared for all kind of situations. Sometimes the opportunity will come to tap whereas sometimes threat will come which must be avoided. In 2018most of the stock markets in the world remain in sideways for the first half of the year and a correction had happened in the second half of the year. So in this post, I’m going to discuss 5 most important things to watch in the stock market which will decide its future in this year and in coming years.

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5. Economic Survey and Interim Budget of 2019

We all know a country’s economy has a major role to play the direction of the stock market. It may be the macro-economic activity or micro-economic activities, the players of the stock market watch all the statistics very carefully to invest in any business. That’s the sole reason that economic survey and interim budget which will come in 1st February 2019 has a significant role to play in stock markets of India.

4. General Election

As we know one of the most important factors in fundamental analysis is the certainty in markets. If there will too many changes in legal formalities if new acts are coming or acts are facing amendments regularly then it becomes hard for the market to understand the environment and thus the markets underperform in comparison to any other markets. That’s why certainty in government is a crucial role to play. In 2019 general elections are going to start. If the current government of Mr., Narendra Modi continues then it will be a good sign for stock markets and the next few years are going to be good for investors. But if any contrary thing happens, then the market may take time to find a direction.

3. Monetary Policy Of RBI

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the central bank of India. It regulates all banks and it decides the monetary policy of the country. This policy has again greater importance from the point of view of stock markets. This policy indicates the interest rate and inflation rate. By this policy, RBI try to keep the inflation in control. If in the coming quarter interest rates started to rise then that will be a bad signal for the economy and market will start to go in a downward direction.

2.Crude Oil Price & Exchange Rates

As India imports crude oil, it becomes a significant thing which creates impact. From the history of the stock market we can easily see that whenever there’s a rise in crude oil price, stock market starts to underperform and vice versa. Similarly, exchange rates also have their own importance. If US Dollar will gain strength in 2019 then rupee will weaken and the stock market will go to a correction zone. So if you’re going to invest in the stock market then you must keep your eye in crude oil momentum and exchange rates.

1. Results Of Domestic Companies

Many times we have witnessed stock specific reaction. It happens when any stock shows any exceptional news or bagged big orders or post extra ordinary results. This will happen when companies started growth and post good results. So the results of all the four quarters in 2019 of domestic companies are also going to give a direction to the Indian Stock Markets. But normally it is very hard to go opposite of economy.

So, these are the 5 things which I think of greater importance. If you have anything in mind you can share that in the comment box. Constructive suggestions are always welcomed. 

Thank You.
Stay happy, Stay Blessed.

Friday, 4 January 2019

Why SIP is Better Than Traditional Investments like Fixed Deposits Or Recurring Deposits?

Why SIP is Better Than Traditional Investments like Fixed Deposits Or Recurring Deposits?

Hello friends, wish you all and your family a very very happy new year. I hope this year will fill your life with happiness and wealth. Make sure to take care of your health, that's something more important than anything else in this world. So friends this year first post will be related to the reasons why SIP are a better option than traditional investments like fixed deposits, recurring deposits, national saving certificates or any kind of term deposits plan. Let's start.
What is SIP?

SIP is acronym of systematic installment purchase. It is nothing but a kind of indirect investment in a stock market with a pre-defined order which is given on a specific date and time each month. SIP is better than direct investment in the stock market because of few genuine reasons. First, it invests your money in a portfolio of stocks which reduces your risk. Second, this portfolio is managed by an expert who has years of experience in the stock market and its industries. Thirdly, people don't have time to track everything in the market, so they should opt for this option for a handsome return over a long time.

Why it is better than Traditional investment options?

Honestly speaking SIP is better than any traditional plan because of its ability to offer a higher return in comparison to traditional investments.

Let's take an example of Axis Long Term Fund which is equity linked saving scheme. If you had invested 5000 per month from Feb 2013 to December 2018 then this would be the calculation.

Monthly Investment - 5000
Total Installment- 73
Total Investment- 365000
Value as on 1st January 2019 - 588857
Net Profit- 223857
Absolute Profit - 61.33%
Internal Rate Of Return- 15.95%

Now let's check the return of a midcap fund. We will take the example of L&T Midcap Fund(Growth). If you had invested 5000 per month from Feb 2013 to December 2018 then this would be the calculation.

Monthly Investment - 5000
Total Installment- 73
Total Investment- 365000
Value as on 1st January 2019 - 657558
Net Profit- 292558
Absolute Profit - 80.15%
Internal Rate Of Return- 19.67%

So you can easily see that if you're investing in mutual fund through SIP then you can expect a return between 12-22% depending upon the fund and its performance. Even if you invest in index fund then also you can expect at least a 10% return which is better than any traditional investments plans.

SBI, the largest PSU bank of India is giving interest at the rate between 6%-7% for both fixed deposits, term deposits, and recurring deposits whereas in post office you will get interested at the rate of 7%-8%. If you are investing in NSC then you will get 8% interest per annum. Each employee invests in provident fund regularly. It is giving 8.55% interest which is best in traditional investment category but still less than mutual funds return. That's why it is advisable to invest in mutual funds through SIP mode for a longer period to get the maximum benefit.

The difference of 1% seems to be very less but if we take a bigger corpus then it really matters. If we had invested 1 crore rupees then 1% of 1 crore will amount 1lakh which is a significant amount for a middle-class family in a country like India.

Things to remember before investing

Please, it's a humble request to all of you to increase your time horizon. If you truly want to get maximum benefit then make sure you have set a target for 20-25 years. Why I'm saying this, because the famous quote of the mutual fund, "Mutual funds are subjected to market risks, read all scheme related document carefully." When it comes to market risk you can't escape from this. If your time horizon is 5-10 years then it may possible that the market will stay sideways and you won't get the return as you expect. But when your time horizon is longer then the market will definitely reward you with a handsome return. Take the example of investment guru Warren Buffet. He doesn't sell once he buys. I really like his concept of investing. So the major take away from this discussion is, "Invest for at least 20-25 years and you won't regret your rest of the life."

So this was today's discussion. if you've any doubt then you can write in the comment box. Same applied in case of suggestions.

Stay Happy, Stay Blessed.

Friday, 28 December 2018

Top 8 Dividend Paying Stocks In India For 2019

Top 8 Dividend Paying Stocks In India For 2019

There are two types of investors in this world. One type of investor wants growth of stocks. They basically want price appreciation of the stocks so that they can be benefited by the long-term gain. The second type of investor's main concern is a dividend. The dividend is given by the company out of profit. It is not mandatory but the companies who are distributing dividend regularly have a good reputation in the share market. So today we're going to discuss Top 8 dividend paying stocks In India.

8. Coal India

Coal India is a well-known company and its reputation in distributing dividend is quite good in the share market. This company is currently trading at 15.62 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹15.82. In FY 2018 coal India has given ₹16.5 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 6.81%.


Power Finance Corporation is another company which distributes dividend regularly and at a good percentage. It offers you dividend more than the fixed deposits offered by most of the nationalized bank. This company is currently trading at 5.27 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹19.96. In FY 2018 coal India has given ₹7.80 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 7.42%.


Rural Electrification Corporation is a company which arranges finance for various kinds of loans and advances related to electricity. This company is currently trading at 4.49 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹27.16. In FY 2018 REC has given ₹9.15 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 7.5%.

5. IOC

Indian Oil Corporation is an Indian state-owned oil and gas company with registered office at Mumbai. This company is currently trading at 5.79 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹23.87. In FY 2018 IOC has given ₹21 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 15.2%.


Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited has approximately 25% market share in India among public sector companies and strong market infrastructure. This company is currently trading at 5.99 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹42.71. In FY 2018 HPCL has given ₹17 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 6.64%.


Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is a government of India controlled maharatna company. This company is India's second largest downstream oil company. This company is currently trading at 9.42 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹38.4. In FY 2018 BPCL has given ₹21 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 5.80%.

2.OIL India

Oil India Limited is the second largest hydrocarbon exploration and production Indian public sector company with its operational headquarter in Assam. This company is currently trading at 6.43 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹27.64. In FY 2018 OIL India has given ₹15 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 8.44%.


Vedanta is a global diversified metals and mining company with its headquarters in London. This company is currently trading at 10.73 P/E ratio and EPS of ₹18.58. In FY 2018 OIL India has given ₹21.2 as a dividend to its shareholders which comes to a dividend yield of 10.63%.

I hope this article will help you in the future for taking decisions regarding dividend-paying stocks. I personally have REC in my portfolio and my only reason to hold this stock is to get the handsome dividend. That’s all for today.

Stay Happy, Stay Blessed.